3 Things to Watch: Spring Training Edition

Spring Training 2014:

Pitchers and catchers have reported. Position players reported before they were required to. It's official. Spring Training games start this week. The Royals will face their Surprise Complex co-hosts, the Texas Rangers, at Surprise Stadium on Thursday, March 27th at 2:05 pm CT. Not that it really matter but the Royals will be the home team and the game the following day, they'll be the away team against the Rangers. The contingency of 60 players have started the process of loosening, oiling, and prepping the gears for the grind of the 162-game season.

The complete pitching assignments: (written by Dick Kaegel of MLB.com)

Thursday vs. Rangers - Bruce Chen, Danny Duffy, Donnie Joseph, Cory Wade, Guillermo Mota, Scott Alexander, and Kelvin Herrera.

Friday at Rangers - James Shields, Chris Dwyer, Jason Adam, Sugar Ray Marimon, Everett Teaford, Michael Mariot, and Tim Collins.

Saturday vs Padres - Jason Vargas, Brad Penny, Aaron Brooks, Aaron Crow, Greg Holland, and Jon Rauch.

Sunday at Cubs - Wade Davis, Yordano Ventura, John Lamb, Francisley Bueno, and P.J. Walters.

Monday, March 3rd, at White Sox - Jeremy Guthrie, Luke Hochevar, Justin Marks, and Louis Coleman.

3Things to Watch in Spring Training

1. Final Rotation Spot
Competitors include: Yordano Ventura, Danny Duffy, Wade Davis, Luke Hochevar, Chris Dwyer, Brad Penny, P.J. Walters, and Everett Teaford. The top three guys that have the best chances in claiming the fifth rotation spot, respectively, are Ventura, Duffy, and Davis. Hochevar proved last year he was bullpen material after multiple years of sluggish starts. The best spot for him is the bullpen. I don't see any other guys having a legitimate shot.

Yordano Ventura. If you were lucky enough to attend his Major League Debut, and only home start so far, on September 17th, 2013, you were somewhat disappointed. Not by Ventura but by the bullpen. Ventura pitched out of a few jams but was marvelous in his debut. Pitching 5.2 innings, 1 ER, 2 BB, and 3 SO, he was in line for the win until Kelvin Herrera allowed 2 earned runs in the 7th. The Royals ended up losing the game to Cleveland 5 to 3 but Ventura looked great. Overall, Ventura started 3 games in the final month of the season. His stat line of 15.1 IP, 13 H, 6 ER, 6 BB, 11 SO, and 3.52 ERA are pretty decent numbers.

Danny Duffy made his MLB debut at 21 on May 18, 2011. He ended up making 20 starts during the season, compiling a 4-8 record along with a 5.68 ERA. Tommy John Surgery to his left elbow in 2012 limited him to starting just 6 games. In his 3 years of Major League experience, Duffy is 8-10 with a 4.75 ERA in 157.1 IP. Granted he was limited by injuries and not backed by much offense. If he is able to stay healthy throughout Spring Training this year, I think he has a legitimate shot at the fifth rotation spot. But only if he is healthy throughout Spring Training.

I'm still a fan of the Wade Davis acquisition. Don't let his stats from 2013 throw you off. Yes he went 8-11 with a whopping 5.32 ERA between the bullpen and as a starter. You can argue that he is better as a bullpen when he went 3-0 in 70.1 IP and a 2.43 ERA in 2012 with Tampa Bay. What is the definition of a winning team? Above .500. Wade Davis is a "winning pitcher". His career numbers are 36-33 (.522) but with a 4.26 ERA (kind of high) in 88 starts. If he struggles this year as a starter, just move him to bullpen again and have Duffy or Hochevar fill in. But don't let me pitch half the season with a roller coaster of quality and poor starts. 

Career numbers that matter:
                             
Yordano Ventura: 0-1 record, 3.52 ERA, 3 GS, 15.1 IP, 13 H, 6 ER, 6 BB, 11 SO, 1.239 WHIP.
Danny Duffy: 8-10 record, 4.75 ERA, 31 GS, 157.1 IP, 164 H, 83 ER, 83 BB, 137 SO, 1.570 WHIP.
Wade Davis: 36-33 record, 4.26 ERA, 88 GS, 594 IP, 605 H, 281 ER, 225 BB, 455 SO, 1.397 WHIP.
Luke Hochevar: 43-61 record, 5.10 ERA, 128 GS, 841.1 IP, 866 H, 477 ER, 274 BB, 613 SO, 1.355 WHIP.

Luke Hochevar, the man with a beard. Drafted in 2006 (1st Round, 1st Overall Pick) as a starter, has had some decent years and beyond poor years. In 2011, Hochevar went 11-11 in 31 starts but had a 4.68 ERA. Way, way too high. During his first campaign as a bullpen guy in 2013, Hochevar compiled a 5-2 record in 70.1 IP. His ERA was 1.92, the lowest it's ever been. His average ERA from 2007-2012 was 4.90. Does that not prove he should be in the bullpen? Bring the big guy (6' 5") out of the bullpen to shut down hitters late in games.

2. The New Moose
Mike Moustakas used the "off season" as a conditioning transition to what he calls the new Mike. Most guys spend the off season either hunting, golfing, relaxing, or doing what they can't do during the season. Not Moose. He spent part of his off season in the Venezuelan League playing under hitting coach Pedro Grifol. They worked on his hitting approach, plate discipline, and one important factor. One of the most important changes in Moustakas' offensive approach for 2014 will be not pulling the ball every time. He is transitioning like Hosmer did last season into driving the ball to the opposite field. This should help raise his BA, increase H, and lower SO. I wanted him during Spring Training in 2013 and he looked good but things changed during the season. He tried too much, plain and simple. If he is able to do things with his bat like he can with his glove, things will be looking up.

3. Final Outfield Spots
Justin Maxwell, Jarrod Dyson, Carlos Peguero, and Jimmy Paredes are going to battle it out for the fourth and fifth outfield spots. All contenders are worthy of the spots. Yet all have the same thing to lose. Maxwell, Dyson, Peguero, and Paredes are all out of minor league options. Ned Yost has ruled out the possibility of an 11-man bullpen while Dyson is expected to be an "insurance" for CF Lorenzo Cain. Dyson has what all the contenders have but a little bit more. Speed. Dyson stole 34 bases last season while only getting thrown out 6 times. For his career, he has 84 SB and 13 CS. Pretty good numbers.Putting that speed in center field is any manager's dream. But honestly, I don't think Dyson is as great defensively as he could be. The battle for the fifth outfield spot should be between Maxwell and Peguero. Both have spower (speed and power) that will help the Royals since they lacked power most of last season. I don't see Paredes contending that well for the fifth spot. Not get me wrong, Paredes is a great ball player but he lacks hitting for average and power. His 3 years in the Majors only shows a .234 BA and only 3 HR. The way the last home game of the season went in 2013, I think Maxwell has the edge with his walk-off grand slam. But if Peguero can prove to be a lethal threat with his power in Spring Training, I'd be surprised if he gave Maxwell a run for his money.

Let the career numbers speak for themselves:

Justin Maxwell - .228 BA (hit .268 in 35 games for the Royals in 2013), 27 HR, 79 RBI, 26 SB (8 CS), 99 BB, .745 SLG in parts of 5 seasons in the NL/AL.

Carlos Peguero - .195 BA, 9 HR, 27 RBI, 1 SB (1 CS), 10 BB, 380 SLG in parts of 3 seasons with Seattle.

Bold Prediction: Maxwell is fifth outfielder.

-Nick Brown (@nick_brown32)

*All statistics are from www.baseball-reference.com*
*Complete pitching assignments originally reported by Dick Kaegel of MLB.com*

From FanFest to Spring Training

"Life is like a jigsaw puzzle, the answer is on the box but you have to fit the pieces together yourself."

To many, FanFest is the unofficial starting countdown to Spring Training. This year, FanFest was a two-day event at Bartle Hall and it certainly didn't disappoint. Besides more opportunities to obtain autographs, the best addition was overall space. Those of you that braved the winter mix of snow and ice for the first day of FanFest probably scored on autographs as much as I did. James Shields, Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez, etc. Friday's attendance was roughly 3,000 along with over 8,000 on Saturday. I only attended Friday and it was a success for me. Scored a bunch of autographs on game used memorabilia that players gave to me during the season (especially Salvy's bat from batting practice). I was able to get Yordano Ventura's autograph on his 2014 Topps Series 1 Rookie Card. 

Wins and losses don't matter much for Spring Training but the Royals will defend their Cactus League title from last year (25-7-2) when they take on their Surprise Stadium counterparts, Texas Rangers, on February 27th at 2:05 pm CST. 

During FanFest, Bruce Chen was signed to a one-year contract for $4.25 million with a mutual option for 2015 of $5.5 million, with a buyout of $1.25 million. On top of that, Yost positioned Chen as #4 in the starting rotation behind Shields, Guthrie, and Vargas, respectively. He finished strong as a starter, beginning the season in the bullpen, but coming to the rescue as Mendoza struggled. that leaves the final rotation spot up for grabs. The competition that'll be contending for it? Danny Duffy, Wade Davis, Yordano Ventura, Kyle Zimmer, and Luke Hochevar. I predict that Ventura or Duffy will claim the final rotation spot to start the year. Ventura went 0-1 in three starts with a 3.52 ERA and 11 K in 15.1 IP. He could have gone 2-0 but the bullpen allowed runs late following a quality start at home. Duffy started five games and went 2-0 with a 1.85 ERA and 22 K in 24.1 IP. I can see Hochevar, Davis, and Zimmer starting at some point during the season if there are injuries or inconsistent starts.

If you haven't seen Yost's, presumably set, lineup for Opening Day, it looks like a real MLB lineup. Compared to last year's, it doesn't really need to be tampered with when it comes to left-handed pitching. The batting order includes left-handed or right-handed and each player's career BA (batting average) and OBP (on-base %) for that batting order position . MLB BA average for 2013 was .253 and OBP was .318.

1. Norichika Aoki (L)- .296 BA and .367 OBP (main batting order position in career)
2. Omar Infante (R) - .444 BA and .500 OBP (only 2 games batting 2nd)
3. Eric Hosmer (L) - .322 BA and .372 OBP (.279 BA and .324 OBP when batting 4th)
4. Billy Butler (R) - .283 Ba and .391 OBP (.303 BA and .454 OBP when batting 3rd)
5. Alex Gordon (L) - (never has batted 5th, in 119 games as lead-off .255 BA/.323 OBP) 
6. Salvador Perez (R) - .333 BA and .345 OBP (only 16 games batting 6th)
7. Mike Moustakas (L) - .233 BA and .268 OBP (only 34 games batting 7th)
8. Lorenzo Cain (R) - .500 BA and .545 OBP (only 3 games batting 8th)
9. Alcides Escobar (R) - .282 BA and .297 OBP (only 46 games batting 9th)

A lead-off hitter is one of the most important components of a successful lineup. In my opinion, the part of this lineup that's most prominent is the decision of the #3/4 hitters. I agree with Yost's decision for Hosmer as the #3 hitter instead of Billy Butler. After Hosmer's second half  surge last season, it's obvious that he deserves the #3 hole. Hosmer was batting .285 in the 1st half and .323 in the 2nd half. His numbers across the board in wins last year proves that he should be the #3 hitter, especially with our two newest additions for lead-off and #2 (Aoki and Infante). (Link for Win/Loss stats - http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=hosmeer01&year=&t=b#outcb)

For 2014, I expect Mike Moustakas to have a career year. I expect him to excel in every statistical category. He has been working out during the entire off-season. He got married (sorry ladies), which should mature him quite a bit. He has been playing games in the Venezuelan League with hitting coach Pedro Grifol, where he has completely changed his approach and swing. The biggest factor that should help him improve is his new approach of not pulling the ball anymore. Watching games last year, Hosmer didn't pull the ball as most lefties do. He was hitting opposite bombs and doubles in the left-center field gap.

Alex Gordon. Where do you even begin with him? Guys still won't learn to NOT run on him. Offensively, I expect a better year than last season when he hit .265 with 20 HR, 81 RBI, and only 27 2B (compared to his league leading 51 2B in 2012).

Salvador Perez. The Venezuelan Cannon behind home plate. 1st Gold Glove of many. Gunning down runners than underestimate him. I see him having another great season after his first full season last year.

*All statistics are from www.baseball-reference.com *

Spring Training Home Schedule 2014

• February 27th vs Rangers (2:05 pm CST)
• February 27th vs Rangers (away team - 2:05 pm CST)
• March 1st vs Padres (2:05 pm CST)
• March 4th vs Reds (2:05 pm CST)
• March 6th vs White Sox (2:05 pm CST)
• March 7th vs Giants (2:05 pm CST)
• March 9th vs Rockies (3:05 pm CDT) *Note the time change from daylight savings
• March 11th vs Dodgers (3:05 pm CDT)
• March 14th vs Athletics (3:05 pm CDT)
• March 15th vs Cubs (Split Squad - 3:05 pm CDT)
• March 17th vs Rangers (8:05 pm CDT)
• March 19th vs Reds (8:05 pm CDT)
• March 20th vs Angels (3:05 pm CDT)
• March 22th vs Rangers (3:05 pm CDT)
• March 25th vs Mariners (8:05 pm CDT)

All home/away games except March 5/8/13/14/15/20/21/22 are available on KCSP 610, MLB.com, or the MLB At Bat app.

Spring Training is right around the corner! Only 10 more days until Royals pitchers/catchers report and 15 more days until the first full squad workout!

-Nick Brown (@nick_brown32)